Im Gespräch mit Niko Jilch von letzter Woche haben wir das Preispotenzial von Bitcoin angesprochen. Dieses sehen wir aktuell bei max. USD 10m. Heute erklären wir noch genauer, wieso das so ist.
Obviously, as I mentioned in the post, the percentage is a guess and highly subjective. Lots of assumptions that need to be proven over time in there.
However, if your percentages would be correct in the long-run, my assumption would be that Bitcoin would much rather trend to zero. As, for some yet unknown reason, the value proposition overall did not withhold on what I and many others believe it to be.
Bitcoin is not the only competitor in the space. But it's by far the hardest, most predictable and most secure asset out there. And history shows that the monetary premium part of all asset classes will flow towards the hardest asset. But if you find another one with better attributes, I'd be happy to look into.
What about another % guess?
Store-of-Value TAM in USD Billionen Berglinde Bitcoin Potential % Bitcoin Potential in USD Billionen Another Guess Another Potential
Gold 12 50% 6 50% 6
Sammlerstücke (Autos, Uhren etc.) 6 15% 0,9 30% 1,8
Kunst 18 30% 5,4 25% 4,5
Aktien 115 10% 11,5 1% 1,15
Immobilien 330 25% 82,5 1% 3,3
Anleihen 300 25% 75 0,50% 1,5
Cash 120 30% 36 5% 6
Sum 901 217,3 24,25
My guess is as good as yours.
Why is Bitcoin the only competitor in this space?
Obviously, as I mentioned in the post, the percentage is a guess and highly subjective. Lots of assumptions that need to be proven over time in there.
However, if your percentages would be correct in the long-run, my assumption would be that Bitcoin would much rather trend to zero. As, for some yet unknown reason, the value proposition overall did not withhold on what I and many others believe it to be.
Bitcoin is not the only competitor in the space. But it's by far the hardest, most predictable and most secure asset out there. And history shows that the monetary premium part of all asset classes will flow towards the hardest asset. But if you find another one with better attributes, I'd be happy to look into.